How The Predictions compare after Round 2 - Malaysian GP
RED BULL
Prediction: Would still have pretty much the fastest car. Vettel to take title, by fairly slim margin. Webber to make some improvement.
Actual: Much slower in qualifying than I thought! Seem to NOT have best car overall. Webber has improved, maybe more than I thought - outqualified Vettel for both races!
MCLAREN
Prediction: No idea if Lewis would beat Jenson - depends which Lewis we got. McLaren to maybe take constructors.
Actual: May have the best car overall! Very much looking like they WILL take constructors. I now think Jenson is the most likely to win the title! He just looks like he means business and knows he's got the car to do it. Looks like he will get the job done, especially if Lewis continues to not get it together and Ferrari don't improve fairly dramatically.
FERRARI
Prediction: A struggle at first, but still top 6-10 material, before recovering to take 3rd in the constructors. Massa to show improvement but still to walk the plank.
Actual: Worse than I could have imagined!!! Massa more off the pace than ever and hasn't looked like scoring points. I still tip them for the same 3rd in WCC.
MERCEDES
Prediction: A return to 2010 form, but with Michael doing better. Stuck neck out to put Michael 6th in WCC, edgind Nico. Still no wins probably.
Actual: Faster in quali than I thought - especially for MS. Race pace means they're where I expected. But MS is so far wiping the floor with Nico!
LOTUS
Prediction: 5th overall - maybe being beaten in WCC by Force India! Grosjean to start off matching/beating Kimi on speed. Kimi possibly struggling somewhat.
Actual: Quite possibly the best car on the grid overall!! Grosjean indeed matching Raikkonen, who looks better than I might have expected. Shouldn't have much trouble from Force India.
FORCE INDIA
Prediction: Another increment forwards, with stronger drivers. An easy 6th in WCC. di Resta to score more points, Hulkenberg to edge it in quali.
Actual: Pace pretty much exactly matches prediction! However, other teams improved, so FI lower than expected. Di Resta does have more points with Nico ahead in quali, at this early stage.
SAUBER
Prediction: A slight slip backwards as others improve, especially in 2nd half of season. Maybe vulnerable to Williams. Kobayashi maybe losing more spark.
Actual: Fast - very much so in races. Looking like a good 6th so far in WCC! Perez outstanding so far, outshining Kobayashi.
TORO ROSSO
Prediction: Vergne to outqualify Ricciardo on debut, to edge him over season and score more points, probably due to 1 or 2 biggish results.
Actual: 2-0 quali to Ricciardo so far, but Vergne has been quick and has x2 points of Ricciardo. Car quicker than expected.
WILLIAMS
Prediction: A decent improvement, scoring at least 20pts. Maldonado to pip Senna in quali, Senna to score more points.
Actual: More than just a small improvement! Maldonado more dominant in quali over Senna then predicted. Senna indeed ahead on points so far.
CATERHAM
Prediction: Still 10th but closing up more to midfield, getting to about 2.7sec. Petrov to do a good job +0.3sec behind Kovalainen.
Actual: As quick as predicted. However teams ahead have made bigger leaps than thought, so Caterham still onn row 10 LOOKING like there's no improvement when there certainly is. Petrov doing VERY well, very close to Kovy and matching/beating him in races!
HRT
Prediction: Still last. Will finish last in WCC this time. Beating the faster Marussia 3 times in a row too much to ask.
Actual: As expected.
MARUSSIA
Prediction: Maybe getting beaten by HRT on merit this time, due to bad preparation. Team most likely to drop out any time soon.
Actual: Actually quite competetive. Pic better than expected in the circumstances. Reliable. Hopefully the future is stronger after all.
Prediction: Would still have pretty much the fastest car. Vettel to take title, by fairly slim margin. Webber to make some improvement.
Actual: Much slower in qualifying than I thought! Seem to NOT have best car overall. Webber has improved, maybe more than I thought - outqualified Vettel for both races!
MCLAREN
Prediction: No idea if Lewis would beat Jenson - depends which Lewis we got. McLaren to maybe take constructors.
Actual: May have the best car overall! Very much looking like they WILL take constructors. I now think Jenson is the most likely to win the title! He just looks like he means business and knows he's got the car to do it. Looks like he will get the job done, especially if Lewis continues to not get it together and Ferrari don't improve fairly dramatically.
FERRARI
Prediction: A struggle at first, but still top 6-10 material, before recovering to take 3rd in the constructors. Massa to show improvement but still to walk the plank.
Actual: Worse than I could have imagined!!! Massa more off the pace than ever and hasn't looked like scoring points. I still tip them for the same 3rd in WCC.
MERCEDES
Prediction: A return to 2010 form, but with Michael doing better. Stuck neck out to put Michael 6th in WCC, edgind Nico. Still no wins probably.
Actual: Faster in quali than I thought - especially for MS. Race pace means they're where I expected. But MS is so far wiping the floor with Nico!
LOTUS
Prediction: 5th overall - maybe being beaten in WCC by Force India! Grosjean to start off matching/beating Kimi on speed. Kimi possibly struggling somewhat.
Actual: Quite possibly the best car on the grid overall!! Grosjean indeed matching Raikkonen, who looks better than I might have expected. Shouldn't have much trouble from Force India.
FORCE INDIA
Prediction: Another increment forwards, with stronger drivers. An easy 6th in WCC. di Resta to score more points, Hulkenberg to edge it in quali.
Actual: Pace pretty much exactly matches prediction! However, other teams improved, so FI lower than expected. Di Resta does have more points with Nico ahead in quali, at this early stage.
SAUBER
Prediction: A slight slip backwards as others improve, especially in 2nd half of season. Maybe vulnerable to Williams. Kobayashi maybe losing more spark.
Actual: Fast - very much so in races. Looking like a good 6th so far in WCC! Perez outstanding so far, outshining Kobayashi.
TORO ROSSO
Prediction: Vergne to outqualify Ricciardo on debut, to edge him over season and score more points, probably due to 1 or 2 biggish results.
Actual: 2-0 quali to Ricciardo so far, but Vergne has been quick and has x2 points of Ricciardo. Car quicker than expected.
WILLIAMS
Prediction: A decent improvement, scoring at least 20pts. Maldonado to pip Senna in quali, Senna to score more points.
Actual: More than just a small improvement! Maldonado more dominant in quali over Senna then predicted. Senna indeed ahead on points so far.
CATERHAM
Prediction: Still 10th but closing up more to midfield, getting to about 2.7sec. Petrov to do a good job +0.3sec behind Kovalainen.
Actual: As quick as predicted. However teams ahead have made bigger leaps than thought, so Caterham still onn row 10 LOOKING like there's no improvement when there certainly is. Petrov doing VERY well, very close to Kovy and matching/beating him in races!
HRT
Prediction: Still last. Will finish last in WCC this time. Beating the faster Marussia 3 times in a row too much to ask.
Actual: As expected.
MARUSSIA
Prediction: Maybe getting beaten by HRT on merit this time, due to bad preparation. Team most likely to drop out any time soon.
Actual: Actually quite competetive. Pic better than expected in the circumstances. Reliable. Hopefully the future is stronger after all.
F1 2012 Pre-Season Predictions
RED BULL RACING - RENAULT
==========================
Well, Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull look like the favourites again. I think Vettel will win it again. If he
qualifies on pole for the majority of the races, he should be fine. If not, it's a chance for him to conquer another area which has been suspect in the past - his ability to race in the pack, and drag the car to victories when it isn't the
best. I'm very confident that for his next trick, he will master this area too.
Mark Webber I suspect, should close the gap to Vettel slightly, but with other teams catching up, he could be left vulnerable. We'll see how many years he has left. I think he could retire in 2013 or even 2014, so Jean Eric Vergne has a chance to develop more at Toro Rosso first.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 2nd
Vettel: 1st
Webber: 5th (or 4th)
MCLAREN - MERCEDES
====================
Fair play to them for having a good looking car without a 2012 nose. It certainly looks like McLaren are in a better place to close the gap this year. The only trouble is, as much as the double-diffuser ban will affect Red Bull, it might affect McLaren even more!
Remember Silverstone last year. They seemed to struggle more than anyone else with the loss. I do believe they will close on Red Bull though. Maybe they can even take the constructors' championship this time.
Jenson Button will not get any slower this year. Even if Hamilton finds his form, I don't think Jenson will be much fazed and should score more good wins. But I can't see a Button/McLaren combination, excellent as it is, toppling the Vettel/Red Bull partnership.
I just don't know what to expect from Lewis Hamilton this season, but I will say it should be better than 2011 and I expect him to finish higher this year. In his favour, I believe if a McLaren driver were to take the title this year, it would be Hamilton. But again Hamilton+McLaren < Vettel+Red Bull this year I think, however close it is. I expect both drivers to take top 3 placings
this year. I have no idea if he will outscore Button this time.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 1st
Button: 2nd or 3rd
Hamilton: 2nd or 3rd
FERRARI
========
Well their car looks pretty **** and doesn't perform much better just now. But Ferrari are too big a team to slip down and struggle. They will recover and be winners this year. Considering they would have finished 3rd even in 2009 if Massa had been around
for all the races, I think 3rd once again is their likely result.
It will be interesting to see how Fernando Alonso copes. He had shown in 2008 this situation of machinery being sub-standard but not showing IMPROVEMENT can wear even him down. I'm thinking Hockenheim 2008 though I wasn't watching F1 then, I just heard about that race. If the car has a hope of a win, he will of course take it.
I feel that Felipe Massa will reduce the gap to Alonso this year and show improvement, but it will be too little too late and I expect his exit to be announced before the end of the season.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 3rd
Alonso: 4th (or 5th)
Massa: 7th (6th-8th too close to call)
MERCEDES
==========
This is one of the most interesting prospects for me this year. I've been disappointed too many times over the years so I will say Mercedes will close the gap to Ferrari and maybe even challenge them for 3rd in the constructors. I believe this team will come good and be champions eventually. If that seems impossible, think of Red Bull 10 years ago and the hopeless mess they were in (as Jaguar), or even how they were in 2008.
The signs look good, and the gap will surely close this time. But I won't get too excited. Instead I predict a season more like 2010, as the team surely returns to the podium.
This is crunch time for Michael Schumacher. I will predict that he will make the podium this time, and it will be one of the most popular and feel-good moments of the season. A win looks out of reach, but with a better car (like the 2012 Mercedes may be) he could have done it in Canada last year. It was only Schumacher's rustiness that caused so many mistakes last year. The really
encouraging thing is that without these mistakes, he would have scored several strong results which would have been enough to give him more points than Rosberg (and be close to Massa even!). The errors were not Sato like, but rather he kept being just a few percent out. So with the errors ironed out by another year under his belt, surely Michael can outscore Rosberg this time round.
As for Nico, he will again outqualify Michael I'm sure, but the improvements that Mercedes look set to make will return him to the podium and relight his fire. It looks good.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 4th
Schumacher: 6th (now THAT is sticking my neck out! I think 8th is more likely though...)
Rosberg: 8th (6th-8th)
LOTUS - RENAULT (Yes they are
actually called Lotus
now!)
=====================================
Well whatever anyone says, it's never good to lose 4 days with a chassis problem. But they've
been topping the times so expectations are high. Thing is, we all know that
topping the times means the square root of exactly stuff-all. So did Williams
last year (I hear). That's why the teams are all repeating the cliche that "we
will only know in qualifying in Melbourne in two weeks time... (blah blah
blah!)
Well you know what? There are reasons to believe this could be a good
year for Benetton, er I mean LOTUS. Consider that this time last year they were
looking in mightily good form. It's true that they fell away badly and only
finished 4 points ahead of Force India. But the thing is, that was only because
of losing star driver Kubica. He would probably have finished 2nd in Melbourne
(I bet Vettel might have found more if Robert had challenged him) and 3rd in
Malaysia. From that platform and with that leadership, where would they have
ended?
I believe Lotus/Renault's true potential was quite a lot higher than it
looked last year. So taking that as the platform for 2012 it looks pretty good.
Even more so when the team and drivers have praise for the new car and look
happy so they can't be in too bad a shape.
The big question is what Kimi is going to be like. It would be
fantastic to have the McLaren-spec Raikkonen, and thankfully there are signs the
real Raikkonen (who really left the sport around 2006-07) could be the one who
returns. I reckon Lotus and their drivers could be similar to Sauber and Jacques
Villeneuve and Felipe Massa in 2005, where Raikkonen situation might be similar
to Villeneuve's (though I can't believe there's any way Kimi will be remotely
that bad!) I mean he could actually be outperformed by Grosjean at first before
asserting himself. I can picture Kimi missing out on quite a few points due to
rusty racecraft, a little like with Schumacher. I can actually see him maybe
struggling a bit, but he should still get one or two good results this year.
As for Grosjean, I feel he may do better than many expect. He could
even have the measure of Kimi (somewhat), especially at first. Romain had no
chance in '09 - it wasn't representative and needs to be discounted. I don't
know what kind of points he can bank though, which could make him vulnerable to
the Force India drivers in the championship.
MY PREDICTION:
Contructors: 5th
Raikkonen: 9th
Grosjean: 11th
FORCE INDIA
============
To their credit, have improved year on year, even last year when they were predicted (by me too) to reverse. So I'd say then can defy predictions again and maybe take another small step, especially with the driver line up being a year stronger.
Team-mate battle is probably the most interesting one for me - so hard to call! Having thought a lot, how about this: di Resta to be ahead on points, Hulkenberg to edge it in quali.
I like both drivers but I want Hulkenberg to win it - he just seems humbler, but I hope di Resta is as good as he thinks he is.
I do wonder if di Resta could have been capable of bettering what Hulkenberg did in Brazil 2010. All in all, an easy 6th in the championship.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 6th
Di Resta: 10th
Hulkenberg: 12th (10th-12th)
SAUBER
======
They're saying they're quick after
testing - but so is everyone else. I can't see them making a big leap to beat
Force India. I expect Perez to grow stronger, and maybe Kobayashi to be
discouraged and grow weaker maybe. Team might go back to the bad old days of
starting pretty well and fading away in the season. Could be vulnerable to Toro
Rosso and an improved Williams too. I will be surprised if this team do make any
big jump in performance. Neverthless, experience to see them hold on to 7th in
the end (my guess).
MY PREDICTION
Constructors: 7th
Kobayashi:
14th
Perez: 13th
TORO ROSSO
=========
Another interesting battle.
I tip Vergne to win, especially in qualifying. Maybe in the points too as I
could imagine him picking up one biggish result somewhere to tip him ahead on
points. Hard to tell if Toro Rosso will continue their upward car momentum this
year. I'd guess inexperience will cost points and they will total (slightly)
less than Alguersuari/Buemi would have done, though I guess the new drivers
ultimately have more potential. Maybe they can beat Sauber this time, but may
have to watch for an improved Williams.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 8th
Vergne:
15th
Ricciardo: 17th
WILLIAMS
=======
The good news is I think Williams at
least won't slide down any further - for now.
They have scope to
improve and hopefully Senna's money will help them do so.
Both drivers
can only improve this year and the Renault engine is a guaranteed
improvement.
Expect a good haul more points this year, and give Sauber
and Toro Rosso at least some challenge - alhough I expect Wililams may fall
short, having SUCH a big points gap to make up on 2011.
I've just had a
thought: How about if Williams 2011 = Honda 2007, then Williams 2012 = Honda
2008? (not a transformation, but a good load more points)
MY PREDICTION: 9th
Maldonado: 18th
Senna: 16th
CATERHAM
=======
Oh boy have I learned over the years
to rein in optimism as positive predictions have been quashed by cold hard
(boring) reality one the season is underway. So I have learned to never expect
much and make bold predictions.
And yet, if Caterham finish 2012 pointless again, I will actually be
surprised. Just as surely as Michael must get that podium this year, so surely
must Caterham finally make it into the top 10. If rumours are to be believed,
they could actually be very close to the midfield, and maybe even at the level
Williams were at last year - which for them would be utterly fantastic!
This year, Caterham will finally shut up their critics over on
crash.net .
As for their fight with HRT and Marussia, forget it. Caterham are in
another league now.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 9th
Kovalainen:
19th
Petrov: 20th
HRT
===
Despite the unprepared start again (possibly
even worse this time around), this is a team I believe in. Why's that? Because
they've already defied the predictions of what seems the majority in that THEY
ARE STILL HERE.
They've even managed to finish 11th for both years, but
they can't keep staying ahead of what is actually a faster Marussia. But is it?
Maybe now Marussia are in the same boat, HRT can beat them on merit this time! I
expect to see them again in 2013.
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 12th
Karthikeyan:
24th
de la Rosa: 22nd
MARUSSIA
=======
So another naive businessman
saunters in thinking they will be successful in F1 in a short time, only to find
it's not the case and quickly get bored, then they quietly pack up and leave having sold the team on.
Cheerio Richard!
Hard to tell where Marussia will be, except it's
NOWHERE near Caterham. These two teams are now totally out of touch with
Caterham. There are reasons for promise: Pat Symonds and McLaren
resources.
But if any team were to the pull the plug, I'd bank on it
being Marussia rather than HRT.
Tough luck Glock - I guess you should
have taken that Renault seat when you had the chance - who knows where you would
be now with Kubica gone...
MY PREDICTION:
Constructors: 11th (for Glock's
sake)
Glock: 21st (again for his sake)
Pic: 23rd
CONCLUSION
=========
So there we have it.
Basically I haven't got a clue what's going to happen, unlike 2010 where I
somehow got it perfect!
F1 2012
MY QUALIFYING PREDICTION
This shows what I'm guessing the average time gaps will be on average over all the races of the season. It's meant to be just for qualifying. Hopefully it turns out something like this. If so, it should be a good season!
1.Sebastian VETTEL (Red Bull)
2.Lewis HAMILTON (McLaren) +0.17
3.Mark WEBBER (Red Bull) +0.24
4.Jenson BUTTON (McLaren) +0.28
5.Fernando ALONSO (Ferrari) +0.54
6.Nico ROSBERG (Mercedes) +0.60
7.Felipe MASSA (Ferrari) +0.78
8.Michael SCHUMACHER (Mercedes) +0.88
9.Kimi RAIKKONEN (Lotus) +0.90
10.Romain GROSJEAN (Lotus) +1.20
11.Nico HULKENBERG (Force India) +1.41
12.Paul DI RESTA (Force India) +1.47
13.Sergio PEREZ (Sauber) +1.74
14.Pastor MALDONADO (Williams) +1.76
15.Bruno SENNA (Williams) +1.78
16.Jean-Eric VERGNE (Toro Rosso) +1.94
17.Kamui KOBAYASHI (Sauber) +1.94
18.Daniel RICCIARDO (Toro Rosso) +2.02
19.Heikki KOVALAINEN (Caterham) +2.48
20.Vitaly PETROV (Caterham) +2.84
21.Timo GLOCK (Marussia) +4.82
22.Charles PIC (Marussia) +5.34
23.Pedro DE LA ROSA (HRT) +5.64
24.Narain KARTHIKEYAN (HRT) +6.28
MY CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION
DRIVERS
1.Sebastian VETTEL (Red Bull) 312pts
2.Lewis HAMILTON (McLaren) 297pts
3.Jenson BUTTON (McLaren) 291pts
4.Mark WEBBER (Red Bull) 234pts
5.Fernando ALONSO (Ferrari) 214pts
6.Michael SCHUMACHER (Mercedes) 142pts
7.Felipe MASSA (Ferrari) 124pts
8.Nico ROSBERG (Mercedes) 118pts
9.Kimi RAIKKONEN (Lotus) 74pts
10.Paul DI RESTA (Force India) 48pts
11.Romain GROSJEAN (Lotus) 38pts
12.Nico HULKENBERG (Force India) 32pts
13.Sergio PEREZ (Sauber) 23pts
14.Kamui KOBAYASHI (Sauber) 19pts
15.Jean-Eric VERGNE (Toro Rosso) 15pts
16.Bruno SENNA (Williams) 14pts
17.Daniel RICCIARDO (Toro Rosso) 10pts
18.Pastor MALDONADO (Williams) 9pts
19.Heikki KOVALAINEN (Caterham) 4pts
20.Vitaly PETROV (Caterham)
21.Timo GLOCK (Marussia)
22.Charles PIC (Marussia)
23.Pedro DE LA ROSA (HRT)
24.Narain KARTHIKEYAN (HRT)
CONSTRUCTORS
1.McLaren - Mercedes 588pts
2.Red Bull Racing - Infiniti 546pts
3.Ferrari - Ferrari 338pts
4.Mercedes - Mercedes 260pts
5.Lotus GP - Renault 112pts
6.Force India - Mercedes 80pts
7.Sauber - Ferrari 42pts
8.Toro Rosso - Ferrari 25pts
9.Williams - Renault 23pts
10.Caterham - Renault 4pts
11.Marussia - Cosworth
12.HRT - Cosworth
This shows what I'm guessing the average time gaps will be on average over all the races of the season. It's meant to be just for qualifying. Hopefully it turns out something like this. If so, it should be a good season!
1.Sebastian VETTEL (Red Bull)
2.Lewis HAMILTON (McLaren) +0.17
3.Mark WEBBER (Red Bull) +0.24
4.Jenson BUTTON (McLaren) +0.28
5.Fernando ALONSO (Ferrari) +0.54
6.Nico ROSBERG (Mercedes) +0.60
7.Felipe MASSA (Ferrari) +0.78
8.Michael SCHUMACHER (Mercedes) +0.88
9.Kimi RAIKKONEN (Lotus) +0.90
10.Romain GROSJEAN (Lotus) +1.20
11.Nico HULKENBERG (Force India) +1.41
12.Paul DI RESTA (Force India) +1.47
13.Sergio PEREZ (Sauber) +1.74
14.Pastor MALDONADO (Williams) +1.76
15.Bruno SENNA (Williams) +1.78
16.Jean-Eric VERGNE (Toro Rosso) +1.94
17.Kamui KOBAYASHI (Sauber) +1.94
18.Daniel RICCIARDO (Toro Rosso) +2.02
19.Heikki KOVALAINEN (Caterham) +2.48
20.Vitaly PETROV (Caterham) +2.84
21.Timo GLOCK (Marussia) +4.82
22.Charles PIC (Marussia) +5.34
23.Pedro DE LA ROSA (HRT) +5.64
24.Narain KARTHIKEYAN (HRT) +6.28
MY CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION
DRIVERS
1.Sebastian VETTEL (Red Bull) 312pts
2.Lewis HAMILTON (McLaren) 297pts
3.Jenson BUTTON (McLaren) 291pts
4.Mark WEBBER (Red Bull) 234pts
5.Fernando ALONSO (Ferrari) 214pts
6.Michael SCHUMACHER (Mercedes) 142pts
7.Felipe MASSA (Ferrari) 124pts
8.Nico ROSBERG (Mercedes) 118pts
9.Kimi RAIKKONEN (Lotus) 74pts
10.Paul DI RESTA (Force India) 48pts
11.Romain GROSJEAN (Lotus) 38pts
12.Nico HULKENBERG (Force India) 32pts
13.Sergio PEREZ (Sauber) 23pts
14.Kamui KOBAYASHI (Sauber) 19pts
15.Jean-Eric VERGNE (Toro Rosso) 15pts
16.Bruno SENNA (Williams) 14pts
17.Daniel RICCIARDO (Toro Rosso) 10pts
18.Pastor MALDONADO (Williams) 9pts
19.Heikki KOVALAINEN (Caterham) 4pts
20.Vitaly PETROV (Caterham)
21.Timo GLOCK (Marussia)
22.Charles PIC (Marussia)
23.Pedro DE LA ROSA (HRT)
24.Narain KARTHIKEYAN (HRT)
CONSTRUCTORS
1.McLaren - Mercedes 588pts
2.Red Bull Racing - Infiniti 546pts
3.Ferrari - Ferrari 338pts
4.Mercedes - Mercedes 260pts
5.Lotus GP - Renault 112pts
6.Force India - Mercedes 80pts
7.Sauber - Ferrari 42pts
8.Toro Rosso - Ferrari 25pts
9.Williams - Renault 23pts
10.Caterham - Renault 4pts
11.Marussia - Cosworth
12.HRT - Cosworth