Preview: Red Bull Racing - Renault
Well, they got there in the end: Despite their best efforts to throw away the 2010 championships, Red Bull Racing managed to pinch them both at the last jump. A drivers' championship trophy for Sebastien Vettel (the youngest ever - just 23) and a constructors one to boot - can't complain at all!
So, how are they gonna get on in 2011? Thing is, this KERS business is coming back to town. The problem for Red Bull is they were one of the teams that chose not to go down the KERS path (and they're probably glad they didn't at the time!), but that means they've had no practice running one, and that must put them on the back foot to McLaren and Ferrari. The KERS system looks like a pretty tricky piece of kit to get a grip of, so the lack of experience with one is going to hurt them surely.
Adrian Newey has recently mumbled about how the KERS system, and the extra space needed to fit it, has caused some difficulties for him as he seeks to craft his latest sleek creation. The bulky thing means he has to make compromises. In this Formula 1 business where no-one can afford to give an inch, that's not good news...
But apart from that, you can expect this latest RB7 to be another fine, cutting edge piece of work.
The team should have gained a huge boost in confidence now they know they can win championships. They now know how it's done and can learn from certain operational mistakes made last year (can't think of any of the top of my head actually!)
As for the drivers, Sebastien Vettel - who set 10 pole positions last year, is not going to get any slower! Like the team, he can certainly be expected to take another stride forward in performance. He probably won't really be any faster, but he will now be more mature and should be able to fill in more of the gaps in his potential. He was heavily criticised at times last year for mistakes. People seem to forget he was only 22/23! And he's the only person in the world who by that young age had already become the youngest driver ever to score a point - on his debut too (2007), scored Toro Rosso's then best ever result of 4th later that year, won a race in a Toro Rosso(!) in 2008 and finished 2nd in the championship in 2009, then winning it in 2010. It was a popular bandwagon to have a go at him, and I must admit I let myself get kinda sucked on. But fair play to him, his recovery in the final phase of the season after Belgium, where he won 3 races and would have probably won the other 2 can't be much faulted.
Now, many drivers who have managed to win a championship, have found that they only have enough capacity to win one of them. To stretch themselves to add a second has often proven too much, and throughout F1 history it has not been at all uncommon to see a driver take the championship one year, only to follow it up with a properly duff season (not mentioning any names... Kimi!), probably because they were only aiming to win a (1) championship - but didn't plan for after that. Mika Hakkinen actually did do the double in 1998-1999, but only after a season full of stuff-ups. Even then, he moaned at the end of 1999 that he was exhausted and never, ever wanted to experience a season like that again! His final two seasons were then an equal mixture of his usual class, but also many tepid race which were at times pretty astonishing. This being the result of the strain his title seasons had put on him.
So what about Sebastien? Is he going to be a one-hit wonder and follow up his winning season with a relative dud. He has said his hero is Michael Schumacher and that Michael is something of a role model to him. Michael of course won seven world titles and was known for his huge hunger for more and more. So I fully expect Sebastien too to aim higher than just one title - and have the werewithal to do so.
For 2011, it goes without saying Sebastien starts out as one of the favourites.
As for Mark Webber, I'm really not sure what to expect for 2011. I will say last year, winning 4 races and leading the championship for much of the season surprised even me. I've always believed in Mark since his first year of Formula
3000 in 2000. Driving that good looking Arrows car run by Paul Stoddart's European Formula team, in one of the most competitive fields I've ever known, he came 3rd in the championship as a rookie, and led it early on, winning a race. No-one seemed to notice that he completely destroyed his more highly rated team mate Christijan Albers, who failed to outqualify Mark even once, and failed to score any points at all compared to Mark's 21!
It was Mark's Jaguar years that really proved his star quality, confirmed by his years at Williams. Race results might not have been what was hoped for, but his qualifying was amazing - in the way he tore up Nick Heidfeld, Antonio Pizzonia and Nico Rosberg (to some extent), routinely putting his car where it wasn't quick enough to be. There would still be plenty of time in the future for the racecraft to reach the same level.
Mark is not considered naturally to be in the absolute same category as Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel and Kubica - and I think that's right. But I do put him in the group just behind, which is still extremely impressive. His huge talent yet seems to be just a little short of the absloute best. Because of that, I saw his 2010 season as more the result of extra-brilliant (temporary) form rather than (permament) class - the result of his work ethic and grittily hanging onto the coat-tails of the leading drivers, benefitting from their mistakes (which he does worlds better than he did around 2005 by the way), and optimising his opportunities.
The problem with that is that everything else being equal, he won't be able to win the title simply on speed and merit alone. So for him to do that, other factors have to come in to play, such as reliability and mistakes from others. And the problem is that you can't live relying on those.
It looked to me like Mark's 2010 was the result of pushing himself to a level he hadn't reached before. But the thing is, it doesn't seem realistic to expect he can carry on giving as much of himself as he has. Even towards the end
of 2010, he seemed exhausted from having pushed just so much harder to keep ahead of the title challengers, and that seemed to show through as he somewhat wilted in the final races. And the question is now how much steam does he have left in his tank, especially if the car does not continue to enjoy the sort of advantage it had in 2010?
I am taking a risk in predicting Red Bull could slip backwards this year. I have in my mind as I'm typing this McLaren's 2005-2006 seasons. In 2005, they had the fastest car of all at almost every track. But in 2006 when the regulations changed (although Adrian Newey did leave), their dominant year was followed up by a winless one!
So I'm wondering whether the changes for this year, especially KERS, which Adrian Newey has already admitted has caused compromises in his design, will result in Red Bull not continuing to be the leading team this year. Though they surely won't struggle so much with KERS as to experience a winless season altogether! They do still have Adrian Newey after all, and KERS or no KERS, the car he designs, plus the drivers who will drive them, will surely be too quick to lose.
OVERALL CONSTRUCTORS' CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION - 3RD
RATING - 8.0
So, how are they gonna get on in 2011? Thing is, this KERS business is coming back to town. The problem for Red Bull is they were one of the teams that chose not to go down the KERS path (and they're probably glad they didn't at the time!), but that means they've had no practice running one, and that must put them on the back foot to McLaren and Ferrari. The KERS system looks like a pretty tricky piece of kit to get a grip of, so the lack of experience with one is going to hurt them surely.
Adrian Newey has recently mumbled about how the KERS system, and the extra space needed to fit it, has caused some difficulties for him as he seeks to craft his latest sleek creation. The bulky thing means he has to make compromises. In this Formula 1 business where no-one can afford to give an inch, that's not good news...
But apart from that, you can expect this latest RB7 to be another fine, cutting edge piece of work.
The team should have gained a huge boost in confidence now they know they can win championships. They now know how it's done and can learn from certain operational mistakes made last year (can't think of any of the top of my head actually!)
As for the drivers, Sebastien Vettel - who set 10 pole positions last year, is not going to get any slower! Like the team, he can certainly be expected to take another stride forward in performance. He probably won't really be any faster, but he will now be more mature and should be able to fill in more of the gaps in his potential. He was heavily criticised at times last year for mistakes. People seem to forget he was only 22/23! And he's the only person in the world who by that young age had already become the youngest driver ever to score a point - on his debut too (2007), scored Toro Rosso's then best ever result of 4th later that year, won a race in a Toro Rosso(!) in 2008 and finished 2nd in the championship in 2009, then winning it in 2010. It was a popular bandwagon to have a go at him, and I must admit I let myself get kinda sucked on. But fair play to him, his recovery in the final phase of the season after Belgium, where he won 3 races and would have probably won the other 2 can't be much faulted.
Now, many drivers who have managed to win a championship, have found that they only have enough capacity to win one of them. To stretch themselves to add a second has often proven too much, and throughout F1 history it has not been at all uncommon to see a driver take the championship one year, only to follow it up with a properly duff season (not mentioning any names... Kimi!), probably because they were only aiming to win a (1) championship - but didn't plan for after that. Mika Hakkinen actually did do the double in 1998-1999, but only after a season full of stuff-ups. Even then, he moaned at the end of 1999 that he was exhausted and never, ever wanted to experience a season like that again! His final two seasons were then an equal mixture of his usual class, but also many tepid race which were at times pretty astonishing. This being the result of the strain his title seasons had put on him.
So what about Sebastien? Is he going to be a one-hit wonder and follow up his winning season with a relative dud. He has said his hero is Michael Schumacher and that Michael is something of a role model to him. Michael of course won seven world titles and was known for his huge hunger for more and more. So I fully expect Sebastien too to aim higher than just one title - and have the werewithal to do so.
For 2011, it goes without saying Sebastien starts out as one of the favourites.
As for Mark Webber, I'm really not sure what to expect for 2011. I will say last year, winning 4 races and leading the championship for much of the season surprised even me. I've always believed in Mark since his first year of Formula
3000 in 2000. Driving that good looking Arrows car run by Paul Stoddart's European Formula team, in one of the most competitive fields I've ever known, he came 3rd in the championship as a rookie, and led it early on, winning a race. No-one seemed to notice that he completely destroyed his more highly rated team mate Christijan Albers, who failed to outqualify Mark even once, and failed to score any points at all compared to Mark's 21!
It was Mark's Jaguar years that really proved his star quality, confirmed by his years at Williams. Race results might not have been what was hoped for, but his qualifying was amazing - in the way he tore up Nick Heidfeld, Antonio Pizzonia and Nico Rosberg (to some extent), routinely putting his car where it wasn't quick enough to be. There would still be plenty of time in the future for the racecraft to reach the same level.
Mark is not considered naturally to be in the absolute same category as Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel and Kubica - and I think that's right. But I do put him in the group just behind, which is still extremely impressive. His huge talent yet seems to be just a little short of the absloute best. Because of that, I saw his 2010 season as more the result of extra-brilliant (temporary) form rather than (permament) class - the result of his work ethic and grittily hanging onto the coat-tails of the leading drivers, benefitting from their mistakes (which he does worlds better than he did around 2005 by the way), and optimising his opportunities.
The problem with that is that everything else being equal, he won't be able to win the title simply on speed and merit alone. So for him to do that, other factors have to come in to play, such as reliability and mistakes from others. And the problem is that you can't live relying on those.
It looked to me like Mark's 2010 was the result of pushing himself to a level he hadn't reached before. But the thing is, it doesn't seem realistic to expect he can carry on giving as much of himself as he has. Even towards the end
of 2010, he seemed exhausted from having pushed just so much harder to keep ahead of the title challengers, and that seemed to show through as he somewhat wilted in the final races. And the question is now how much steam does he have left in his tank, especially if the car does not continue to enjoy the sort of advantage it had in 2010?
I am taking a risk in predicting Red Bull could slip backwards this year. I have in my mind as I'm typing this McLaren's 2005-2006 seasons. In 2005, they had the fastest car of all at almost every track. But in 2006 when the regulations changed (although Adrian Newey did leave), their dominant year was followed up by a winless one!
So I'm wondering whether the changes for this year, especially KERS, which Adrian Newey has already admitted has caused compromises in his design, will result in Red Bull not continuing to be the leading team this year. Though they surely won't struggle so much with KERS as to experience a winless season altogether! They do still have Adrian Newey after all, and KERS or no KERS, the car he designs, plus the drivers who will drive them, will surely be too quick to lose.
OVERALL CONSTRUCTORS' CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION - 3RD
RATING - 8.0